Thinking Green, New Rail Incentives on Offer

Travelling by rail can be a pain these days, so top marks to whoever came up with this incentive scheme:








Have a good weekend, and be lucky!

If there is a God, he has a sense of humour

From The Times, Feb 22nd

A GROUP of health and safety officers were rescued by firefighters yesterday after the floor of their office collapsed during a discussion about safety procedures.

The 21 officials who attended the first-floor meeting made a swift but unintentional descent to the ground floor accompanied by a conference table. Office workers on the ground floor fled after they noticed that the ceiling was moving.

Two fire engines and a fleet of ambulances went to the building, a converted former mill in Hyde, Greater Manchester. Six people were taken to hospital, one with a suspected broken ankle and the others with minor injuries.

Is the CIA Too Political?

There seems to be a lot of ex-CIA staffers with stories to tell (and books to sell) about how the Bush administation cherry-picked intelligence, and ignored warnings about post-invasion instability in Iraq. All very interesting, but exactly how impartial (and accurate) are these tales?

In a short article on the make-up of the CIA, its political leanings AND the background to the intelligence failings in the run up to the Iraq invasion, this article from AEI highlights how the CIA has promoted it's own agenda, obstructed political directives - and blamed it's failings on outside interests.

Innovation and R&D

Gavekal Research are still bullish on the US economy; despite all the visible problems - deficits, poor wage growth, incipient inflation - the doughty researchers believe "this time it's different". This view is based on rapidly growing R&D spending, particularly in the broad area of "innovation" - the ipods of the world etc. I did some research myself to see what great new ideas the Yanks are coming up with, and here is the one I found:


PHOENIX (AP) - The nation's largest stun-gun maker has a new way to deliver a jolt of electricity to the human body: a 12-gauge shotgun.

Taser International is developing X-REP. That stands for Extended Range Electro-Muscular Projectile. It's a shotgun shell designed to combine the blunt-force trauma of a fast-moving baseball with the electrical current of a stun gun.

Existing Tasers can only hit a target about 25 feet away. The shotgun shell reaches 30 yards and the company wants to extend the range to about 100 yards before the product goes on sale next year.

The new device will allow police officers, troops and private citizens to hit a person from a much greater distance than Tasers and will be considered a high-level-force weapon. Human rights organizations, which blame Tasers for dozens of deaths, are already objecting to the new device.

Silly human rights people!

Iran - Is It Too Late?

Despite attempts by Russia to keep Iran off the Iran sanctions list, signals from Iran do not suggest a willingness to compromise over their clear goal to join the club of nuclear powers. In fact, April the 8th appears to be the date they will announce this has been achieved.

The evidence for this is in increasingly confident rhetoric coming from Iranian leaders: when the French recently announced the Iranian programme was all about weapons Iran demanded an apology; when the furore over the cartoons of the prophet blew up, Iranian diplomats took to maligning Western values – and individuals – on air; the authorities did little to stop mobs attacking Western embassies in Tehran, and appears to be behind some of the actions taken elsewhere by the mobs. Certainly they seem keener to stir things up than calm them down. There is also no pretence of co-operation with even Russia anymore.

So, if this all suggests we will have to come to terms with a hardline regime that has the nuclear option, what next? Hopefully the pointers are already there from the US: The current regime in Tehran is notorious for mistreating sections of its population. Anyone who is perceived as anti the regime gets short shrift – imprisoned, beaten or even executed for voicing dissent. This looks set to increase (the regime threatened to execute political prisoners if the UN imposed sanctions), and America is playing on this by – openly – announcing it will fund democratic groups.

Although, if April 8th does herald the chilling reality of a nuclear Iran, the future looks bleak, the best outcome would be for a popular ousting of the current regime. Once again, it looks as if “Old Europe” might be calling it wrong by stepping up the level of rhetoric, and proposing sanctions – unless it is playing bad guy to the American good guy.

It is obviously a long way from where we are now to a more secular democracy in Iran, but every journey begins with small steps, and whereas the first protests over the jailing of the Iranian bus drivers was small, the world is awakening to appalling violations of rights in Iran. The 15th February was a day of support for the Iranian bus drivers all across the civilized world. The AFL-CIO led the way, joined by unions in France, Britain, Spain, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Canada, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, and Bermuda.

A small step perhaps, but one that produces less fear than military intervention, and more hope than burying our collective heads in the sand.

Where Have All The Diplomats Gone?

or Why Diplomats are the Only Public Servants I Would Like More of

When I was a kid I remember the name Henry Kissinger referred to a man who whizzed around the world, acting as go between for countries that wouldn’t talk to each other directly. My vague recollection is that he wasn’t much liked, but he worked hard and he brokered some memorable “peace” deals by talking to people that, in theory, other heads of state were not supposed to be talking to. This is something that doesn’t happen these days, it seems.

I know Kissinger wasn’t the nicest of people; he said some very offensive things, and he appeared to be the sort of person who would flatter and suck up to people in power, if he thought it gave him some reflected “glory”. Not the sort of person you would want to share a sojourn in a Big Brother house with. But, would you tolerate him if he could prevent a serious conflict? By serious, I mean bigger than the Iraq conflict – far bigger.

This conflict is, of course, the looming military strike on Iran; so far, diplomatic efforts have consisted of stern tellings off by the headmaster (Europe), some veiled threats from the “authorities” (America) and some not-veiled threats from the vigilantes (Israel), as well as some neighbourly advice – even though the neighbours don’t get on (Saudi) as well cajoling by so-called “mates” – Russia. To me, this does not constitute diplomacy, not a la Kissinger, anyway. What we want is someone (but not Donald Rumsfeld) with authority to visit Iran, and then Israel, and try to find some common ground.

The trouble with sending envoys is that the concept has been polluted by self-serving idiots, such as George Galloway, who have done absolutely nothing to develop understanding and respect between conflicting cultures.

The other trouble is that leaders such as Tony Blair view a visit as something to be done to cement trade deals, and to demonstrate how grand and powerful they are. It needs someone who knows how to flatter, but who also can be forceful. It is a difficult mix, and no one springs to mind initially. However, the advert for the post could read: Wanted. Someone with the skill and diplomacy to save mankind from his own follies. Willingness to eat – and appear to enjoy – exotic foods a must. Objectivity an asset [which precludes our very own Foreign Office]. Understanding of history essential.

Now, this government has managed to hire upwards of 900,000 people while in office; what jobs they actually do is unclear, but wouldn’t it be good if, somewhere among the jobs in the Guardian, there was one for someone who can save the world.

Anyone who thinks this job is unnecessary should go here

Lookalikes

As I no longer read Private Eye, I cannot say if their "Has anyone else noticed the similarity between.... are they related?" photos are any good anymore - or even if they do them still. Pootergeek (http://www.pootergeek.com/) has got such a good one I predict it will be in the press soon, if not on David Cameron's wall.

A prize for the best lookee-likee submitted.

FUEL CELL OR FOOL SELL?

Fuel cell or Fool sell?

Why have we not seen a fully functioning hydrogen fuel cell car yet? For a while the fuel cell was deemed to be the saviour of the planet and the answer to our transport woes, yet all we got was the petrol-electric hybrid, a car that barely manages to improve on the ordinary motor car, despite all the Hollywood buyers and “green” publicity. I got in a Prius the other day, and was instantly asked where the nearest petrol station was. I suggested the driver switch to electric power, but was told “you only get a couple of miles on electric alone” – not the impression one is given from the press eh?

Apparently, Honda may change all that. In January, Honda announced that it would begin production in Japan of its fuel cell FCX vehicle within the next three to four years. This new FCX design, appears to be comparable to a petrol-engined vehicle in power and range – and it looks good. I don’t know about you, but I think the Toyota designers must have been given a brief which said “make this car stand out – ugly if necessary” Have a look at this:


Still, there is the issue of refuelling. Only California is committed to building fuel stops for hydrogen vehicles. As for the other stumbling block, the need to create hydrogen, using lots of energy in the process: Honda has overcome that one very neatly: It has coupled the announcement of the FCX production with the latest generation of its Home Energy Station (HES). The Home Energy Station uses regular natural gas as its base fuel, reforming it into H2 to fuel the FCX at home. But that's not all it does:

The system is equipped with fuel cells that generate and supply electricity to the home, and is configured to recover the heat produced during power generation for domestic water heating. In addition to reducing carbon dioxide emissions by some 40 percent, the HES system is expected to lower the total running cost of household electricity, gas and vehicle fuel by 50 percent.
This is miles ahead of the petrol-electric hybrid; the ability of the PHEV to function as a home power source when needed makes it more useful than simply an advanced form of transportation. It makes power generation more local, and enables individuals to put power back into the grid at low-demand periods – thus making the smart-grid a local reality.

Numbers, VERY LARGE numbers...

Being a citizen of what is merely the 4th largest economy, the US budget numbers astound me; so, following the thrills and spills of clashing civilisations, lets look at some numbers.

George W. Bush unveiled his budget proposal last week; commentators took various views, but this one from the LA Times is quite succinct:

Bush Budget Plan Strikes Home, Not Deficit WASHINGTON — President Bush [today] will propose a $2.7-trillion budget that would take another slice out of domestic spending next year — but still leave a huge $355-billion deficit.In Bush's budget for fiscal year 2007, which begins Oct. 1, the departments of Defense and Homeland Security would continue to grow at a rate greater than inflation.But most other federal departments, from Agriculture to Veterans Affairs, will be asked to get along next year with less money, and with no allowance for inflation or population growth.Altogether, Bush's budget would save $14.5 billion next year by eliminating or sharply curtailing 141 federal programs — fulfilling his vow in last week's State of the Union address to reduce the costs of what he called "non-security discretionary spending."Broken down, those range from a relatively small nick in Medicare's enormous growth to the virtual elimination of a small program that distributes food to the elderly."

And so on and so on. Not wishing to tread on any American colleagues toes, I am only going to look at the defence side of it, as rumours of a new arms race begin to surface:

The DoD budget for fiscal year 2007 is $439.3 billion. But apparently the Office of Management and Budget's document Budget Authority and Outlays by Function, Category and Program contains a category called "National Defense", which includes not only the Defense Department budget but also the defence activities of the Department of Energy (mainly nukes and weapons labs, totaling $16 billion) and several other federal agencies ($4.4 billion), as well as $3.3 billion in various "mandatory" programs (which appear to be pensions, though whether for officers or enlisted men is not clear). In total, the sum is now $463 billion.

The OMB also includes the $50 billion that Donald Rumsfeld says he will request in "supplemental" funds for FY 2007, to cover the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We are now up to $513 billion.

Oh, and the Pentagon also announced Monday that it would ask Congress for $70 billion to fund war costs for the rest of FY 2006. This $70 billion doesn't count toward military appropriations for FY 2007 - or does it?. If it does, the grand total is now up to $583 billion.

Pretty spicy huh? But it gets better; when numbers of such magnitude are presented it is sometimes difficult to grasp where it is all going, down to the last pounds, shillings and cents... To help track some of the money into the actual machinery it is buying, here is Fred Kaplan writing for Slate magazine:

The F-22A stealth fighter aircraft ($2.8 billion). I've recited the argument too many times (and there's a fairly large choir joining me), but how many stealth fighters do we need (beyond the nearly 100 we already have) in a world where no foe seems able to shoot down any of our vast arsenal of un-stealthy planes?

Fred K goes on to list submarines, destroyers, an aircraft carrier (the US has 12 carrier strike groups already), more planes and missile programmes - all big projects with funds committed, but seemingly of little relevance in today's conflicts. I wonder what the soldier squinting down the barrel of his jammed M-16 would say?

PS. For the record, the UK's total public expenditure will be around £519bn, about $882bn

Between the Guns and the Prayers

"Hammo, Hamas, Hamat..."
guns "between" prayers

I know, that's not funny. But then, neither are the cartoons that started this:
http://www.humaneventsonline.com/sarticle.php?id=12146

So why is there so much uproar? I know history is littered with individual protests that became "causes celebres" - Rosa Parks springs to mind, for some reason - but this protest does not appear to have grown out of righteous anger against a perceived injustice. Eureferendum blogger reckons it is organised by a few key individuals, linking to an article ( Telegraph) in today's Telegraph (http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/).

In itself, such co-ordination is interesting but not life-changing; I think your average Joe Public in Europe is not going to get sucked into a hard pro- or anti- stance based on the protests, or the reasons given for them. However, in the run up to the invasion of Iraq, part of my hawkish stance was based on a feeling that conflict between the "liberal" West and hard-line Islam was inevitable, and supporting a democracy in an Islamic country would provide a buffer - reducing the friction where the tectonic plates meet. Reading Amber Pawlik's article, Islam On Trial (see link below), I am not so sure. Ms Pawlik points out that just over 50% of the Koran (based on a sampling of the verses) covers the slaying of infidels... I think we need to "democratise" - albeit more successfully - several more countries in the region - fast!

http://www.amberpawlik.com/IslamonTrial.html

IT'S SATIRE, JIM, BUT NOT AS WE KNOW IT

Following the Arab European League's [possibly unintentionally] humorous foray into the cartoon controversy, Iran has picked up the standard, and plans to "satirise" the Holocaust, with a public competition to find the most suitable cartoons. The AEL cartoons are:






















Let's hope Iran's choices are funnier than these, and indeed those which started the whole shebang in the first place.

Iran's best-selling newspaper said Monday it would run images satirizing the Holocaust after the publication of cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammad in European newspapers, The Guardian reports Tuesday without citing sources. The right-wing Hamshari daily is to launch an international competition to find the most suitable caricatures. Newspaper Web site: http://www.guardian.co.uk

I can't help thinking this is no way for grown-ups to behave; it does beat other forms of distracting the electorate though, as in the Argentinian junta's invasion of the Falklands, Russia's invasion of Chechnaya - and our very own Royal scandals (doesn't really measure up, does it, although Royal Scandal vs Cartoon Debacle is probably a fair fight). Bring on the cartoons! Rev up the satire! Make no difference whatsoever, but do run around like a headless chicken!

CONTRADICTORY REPORTS ON US JOBS

What to believe?
Conflicting evidence from different sources ahead of todays non-farm payroll data. CEPR, the American think-tank, reckons US stats uderestimate unemployment considerably:

STUDY FINDS DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OVERSTATES SHARE OF WORKING AMERICANS BY 1.4 PERCENTAGE POINTS Washington, DC - The most important source of data on the U.S. labor market may be systematically overstating employment, according to a new report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The report, "Missing Inaction: Evidence of Undercounting of Non-Workers in the Current Population Survey (CPS)," found that the CPS appears to be overstating the share of American adults who are working by about 1.4 percentage points.

The report by economists John Schmitt and Dean Baker noted that a large and growing portion of the population does not respond to the CPS, and that the non-responders appear less likely to be employed than people who take the survey. This overstatement is significant because the CPS is the source for the official monthly unemployment rate, as well as annual data on poverty and health insurance coverage. for the full story: http://ceprnews.c.topica.com/maaesdVabn0xYcfAKYjbafpNFx/

But then, Market News Services ran the following:

NEW YORK, Feb 2 (MNI) - U.S. hiring activity was off to a running start in January, and 2006 promises a continued shortage of qualified candidates, from the machine shop to the boardroom, according to staffing executives. Many regions saw brisk demand for temporary and permanent workers in January, personnel specialists said. The recruiting crunch means wages are rising, though not by leaps and bounds.

Hiring in manufacturing continues to recover, from Florida to Ohio to Oregon, but looming on the horizon are mass layoffs at the two remaining domestic automakers.

Meanwhile, The Monster Jobs Employment Index, a private survey of online employment, showed strong jobs growth - "soaring six points to an all-time high". Admittedly, a lot of that was "military and protective service" growth, but jobs is jobs eh? Shortly after that release, the Challenger Layoffs data showed firings running 12% higher than Jan05, although 4% down from December's level.

So hey-ho, US employment data shortly, with the customary one-point swing in the bond (plus); median forecast is around 275K new jobs, on which hinges the next quarter's $48bn refunding... strap yourselves in and get ready for the ride.

HURRICANE KARIKATURE

Europe has its own "Hurricane Katrina"

The "storm in a tea cup" spreads: New York Times reports that several European papers have published the pictures: In support of the Danish position, newspapers in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland reprinted some of the cartoons on Wednesday. A small Norwegian evangelical magazine, Magazinet, also published the cartoons last month. Although there is sometimes safety in numbers, don't they know how many Islamic militants there are out there?

AP News reports that a Jordanian newspaper ran the cartoons yesterday (Thursday), and the editor has already been sacked:

AMMAN (AP)--A Jordanian newspaper took the bold step Thursday of publishing the Danish caricatures of Prophet Muhammad that have outraged Muslims, resulting in the dismissal of the weekly's chief editor and a stern government threat of legal action. Jihad al-Momani, chief editor of the Arabic Shihan, told The Associated Press that he reprinted the cartoons to show readers "the extent of the Danish offense." But a Shihan editorial - signed by al-Momani and entitled "Muslims of the world, be reasonable" - also questioned what sparked the Muslim uproar now, months after the cartoons were first published in September. Hours later, Shihan's owner - the Arab Publishers Company - fired al-Momani for the reprints,saying the editor caused a "shock to the firm and those responsible for it," the official Petranews agency reported. It said the firm withdrew the weekly's edition from the market and opened an investigation to determine if other staff were involved. A spokesman for the Arab Publishers Company confirmed Petra's report. He said al-Momani's"termination is conclusive." He refused to provide other details and spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. Al-Momani declined comment, but said he may issue a written statement later. His editorial pointed out that the Danish paper, Jyllands-Posten, had apologized, "but for some reason, nobody in the Muslim world wants to hear the apology." "Who offends Islam more? A foreigner who endeavors to draw the Prophet as described by hisfollowers in the world, or a Muslim armed with an explosive belt who commits suicide in a wedding party in Amman or anywhere else," the editorial said, referring to one of the triple Amman hotel bombings carried out by al-Qaida bombers last November. Government spokesman Nasser Judeh said Shihan committed a "big mistake" by reprinting some of the drawings. "The government strongly denounces this issue, which it considers extremely harmful, and demands an immediate apology from the newspaper for this flagrant mistake," Judeh said. He said the state is reviewing "all options, especially legal action" against Shihan.

The storm spilleth over into the saucer. In fact, with the story now front page news I look forward to pages on it in the Sunday broadsheets.

SANGUINE ABOUT THE US CONSUMER?

US December Personal Income came in a weak 0.4%, continuing the weakness seen in November (also 0.4%). This should be causing at least a small frisson among economists, as the world looks to the US consumer for a large slice of GDP growth, and as equity withdrawal from housing assets slows, income growth becomes very important. However, instead of seeing this as a worrying trend, pundits are positing two reasons for the weakness: The first is the effect of the hurricanes. But the hurricanes happened three and four months ago, whereas personal income dropped in August and recovered in September - as you would expect. Second, the Microsoft dividend was paid out close to a year back, which makes the year on year comparisons look worse. While there may be some truth in this, it does not explain the trend which is emerging, but rather tries to hide it. This chart shows fluctuations in Personal Income over the last few decades (thanks to Contrary Investor again):


The US economy has slipped into recession almost every time Personal Income growth slowed to the level seen at the end of December. With the pressure on the consumer from rising interest rates and higher energy costs, what do you think that means for the year ahead?

Meanwhile, the Morgan Stanley investors forum, as related by the esteemed Chief Economist, Stephen Roach, found most participants sanguine about the outlook for consumer spending. Well, unless that blue line on the chart bounces, they might have to rethink their strategies.

An Exercise in Self-Censorship

You have to love a good storm in a tea cup.

France Soir has re-published the drawings of the Prophet Muhammad that caused a bit of a brouhaha among Muslims when they were printed in a Danish daily. The newspaper said: "religious dogma has no place in a secular society". Apparently Islamic tradition bars any depiction of the prophet, which I can see does have several advantages. When the drawings originally appeared in a Danish newspaper (Sept. 30th), there were death threats and calls to boycott Danish products (what, no bacon?). The images were prompted by a desire to flout the very tradition mentioned above. The depictions include incendiary images such as Muhammad wearing a turban shaped as a bomb with a burning fuse.

Now, with the French "intelligentsia" picking up the baton of freedom of expression, the editor of the Danish paper has said the paper would not have done so had it known the drawings would lead to a boycott of Danish goods and threats against lives. According to a spokesman, the drawings (which were not just of the Prophet) were published partly as an exercise in freedom of speech and against self-censorship.

I suppose if you respond to death threats by cowering, that is not strictly self-censorship; however, can someone explain to me why the pictures were published in the first place, if the principle behind doing so are not worth standing up for? Is the West confused or what?