Iran - Is It Too Late?
Despite attempts by Russia to keep Iran off the Iran sanctions list, signals from Iran do not suggest a willingness to compromise over their clear goal to join the club of nuclear powers. In fact, April the 8th appears to be the date they will announce this has been achieved.
The evidence for this is in increasingly confident rhetoric coming from Iranian leaders: when the French recently announced the Iranian programme was all about weapons Iran demanded an apology; when the furore over the cartoons of the prophet blew up, Iranian diplomats took to maligning Western values – and individuals – on air; the authorities did little to stop mobs attacking Western embassies in Tehran, and appears to be behind some of the actions taken elsewhere by the mobs. Certainly they seem keener to stir things up than calm them down. There is also no pretence of co-operation with even Russia anymore.
So, if this all suggests we will have to come to terms with a hardline regime that has the nuclear option, what next? Hopefully the pointers are already there from the US: The current regime in Tehran is notorious for mistreating sections of its population. Anyone who is perceived as anti the regime gets short shrift – imprisoned, beaten or even executed for voicing dissent. This looks set to increase (the regime threatened to execute political prisoners if the UN imposed sanctions), and America is playing on this by – openly – announcing it will fund democratic groups.
Although, if April 8th does herald the chilling reality of a nuclear Iran, the future looks bleak, the best outcome would be for a popular ousting of the current regime. Once again, it looks as if “Old Europe” might be calling it wrong by stepping up the level of rhetoric, and proposing sanctions – unless it is playing bad guy to the American good guy.
It is obviously a long way from where we are now to a more secular democracy in Iran, but every journey begins with small steps, and whereas the first protests over the jailing of the Iranian bus drivers was small, the world is awakening to appalling violations of rights in Iran. The 15th February was a day of support for the Iranian bus drivers all across the civilized world. The AFL-CIO led the way, joined by unions in France, Britain, Spain, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Canada, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, and Bermuda.
A small step perhaps, but one that produces less fear than military intervention, and more hope than burying our collective heads in the sand.
The evidence for this is in increasingly confident rhetoric coming from Iranian leaders: when the French recently announced the Iranian programme was all about weapons Iran demanded an apology; when the furore over the cartoons of the prophet blew up, Iranian diplomats took to maligning Western values – and individuals – on air; the authorities did little to stop mobs attacking Western embassies in Tehran, and appears to be behind some of the actions taken elsewhere by the mobs. Certainly they seem keener to stir things up than calm them down. There is also no pretence of co-operation with even Russia anymore.
So, if this all suggests we will have to come to terms with a hardline regime that has the nuclear option, what next? Hopefully the pointers are already there from the US: The current regime in Tehran is notorious for mistreating sections of its population. Anyone who is perceived as anti the regime gets short shrift – imprisoned, beaten or even executed for voicing dissent. This looks set to increase (the regime threatened to execute political prisoners if the UN imposed sanctions), and America is playing on this by – openly – announcing it will fund democratic groups.
Although, if April 8th does herald the chilling reality of a nuclear Iran, the future looks bleak, the best outcome would be for a popular ousting of the current regime. Once again, it looks as if “Old Europe” might be calling it wrong by stepping up the level of rhetoric, and proposing sanctions – unless it is playing bad guy to the American good guy.
It is obviously a long way from where we are now to a more secular democracy in Iran, but every journey begins with small steps, and whereas the first protests over the jailing of the Iranian bus drivers was small, the world is awakening to appalling violations of rights in Iran. The 15th February was a day of support for the Iranian bus drivers all across the civilized world. The AFL-CIO led the way, joined by unions in France, Britain, Spain, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Canada, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, and Bermuda.
A small step perhaps, but one that produces less fear than military intervention, and more hope than burying our collective heads in the sand.
posted by Jambutty at 2:59 pm
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