CONTRADICTORY REPORTS ON US JOBS
What to believe?
Conflicting evidence from different sources ahead of todays non-farm payroll data. CEPR, the American think-tank, reckons US stats uderestimate unemployment considerably:
STUDY FINDS DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OVERSTATES SHARE OF WORKING AMERICANS BY 1.4 PERCENTAGE POINTS Washington, DC - The most important source of data on the U.S. labor market may be systematically overstating employment, according to a new report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The report, "Missing Inaction: Evidence of Undercounting of Non-Workers in the Current Population Survey (CPS)," found that the CPS appears to be overstating the share of American adults who are working by about 1.4 percentage points.
The report by economists John Schmitt and Dean Baker noted that a large and growing portion of the population does not respond to the CPS, and that the non-responders appear less likely to be employed than people who take the survey. This overstatement is significant because the CPS is the source for the official monthly unemployment rate, as well as annual data on poverty and health insurance coverage. for the full story: http://ceprnews.c.topica.com/maaesdVabn0xYcfAKYjbafpNFx/
But then, Market News Services ran the following:
NEW YORK, Feb 2 (MNI) - U.S. hiring activity was off to a running start in January, and 2006 promises a continued shortage of qualified candidates, from the machine shop to the boardroom, according to staffing executives. Many regions saw brisk demand for temporary and permanent workers in January, personnel specialists said. The recruiting crunch means wages are rising, though not by leaps and bounds.
Hiring in manufacturing continues to recover, from Florida to Ohio to Oregon, but looming on the horizon are mass layoffs at the two remaining domestic automakers.
Meanwhile, The Monster Jobs Employment Index, a private survey of online employment, showed strong jobs growth - "soaring six points to an all-time high". Admittedly, a lot of that was "military and protective service" growth, but jobs is jobs eh? Shortly after that release, the Challenger Layoffs data showed firings running 12% higher than Jan05, although 4% down from December's level.
So hey-ho, US employment data shortly, with the customary one-point swing in the bond (plus); median forecast is around 275K new jobs, on which hinges the next quarter's $48bn refunding... strap yourselves in and get ready for the ride.
Conflicting evidence from different sources ahead of todays non-farm payroll data. CEPR, the American think-tank, reckons US stats uderestimate unemployment considerably:
STUDY FINDS DEPARTMENT OF LABOR OVERSTATES SHARE OF WORKING AMERICANS BY 1.4 PERCENTAGE POINTS Washington, DC - The most important source of data on the U.S. labor market may be systematically overstating employment, according to a new report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The report, "Missing Inaction: Evidence of Undercounting of Non-Workers in the Current Population Survey (CPS)," found that the CPS appears to be overstating the share of American adults who are working by about 1.4 percentage points.
The report by economists John Schmitt and Dean Baker noted that a large and growing portion of the population does not respond to the CPS, and that the non-responders appear less likely to be employed than people who take the survey. This overstatement is significant because the CPS is the source for the official monthly unemployment rate, as well as annual data on poverty and health insurance coverage. for the full story: http://ceprnews.c.topica.com/maaesdVabn0xYcfAKYjbafpNFx/
But then, Market News Services ran the following:
NEW YORK, Feb 2 (MNI) - U.S. hiring activity was off to a running start in January, and 2006 promises a continued shortage of qualified candidates, from the machine shop to the boardroom, according to staffing executives. Many regions saw brisk demand for temporary and permanent workers in January, personnel specialists said. The recruiting crunch means wages are rising, though not by leaps and bounds.
Hiring in manufacturing continues to recover, from Florida to Ohio to Oregon, but looming on the horizon are mass layoffs at the two remaining domestic automakers.
Meanwhile, The Monster Jobs Employment Index, a private survey of online employment, showed strong jobs growth - "soaring six points to an all-time high". Admittedly, a lot of that was "military and protective service" growth, but jobs is jobs eh? Shortly after that release, the Challenger Layoffs data showed firings running 12% higher than Jan05, although 4% down from December's level.
So hey-ho, US employment data shortly, with the customary one-point swing in the bond (plus); median forecast is around 275K new jobs, on which hinges the next quarter's $48bn refunding... strap yourselves in and get ready for the ride.
posted by Jambutty at 11:51 am
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